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All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page
Market report for Saturday November 19th
*Indicates the team is in the second leg of a tackle
**Lines are opening numbers
Record: 15-23 | Units: -8.31| Yield: -23.07%
None this college football Saturday.
Toronto Raptors at Atlanta Hawks (-5.5, 225)
Toronto’s injury record continues to grow and they added another name after their win against Miami on Wednesday when Delano Banton went down with an ankle injury. That means five of their top eight leaders will miss this game within minutes, as will Banton. It doesn’t seem like an ideal situation for the Raptors, but the market seems to think this line accurately reflects the injury situation since this line hasn’t moved off offense. Atlanta has been very inconsistent lately, coming into this game 2-3 SU and ATS with a defensive rating of 121.2 in losses but 96.6 in wins. That sort of inconsistency would allow a well-trained team like Toronto, who pulled off a 21-0 run against the Heat the other night, to stay in a number like that.
*Orlando Magic at *Indiana Pacers (-6.5, 230)
Indiana stormed back against Houston last night to maintain their perfect ATS run and is now 9-0 ATS in their last nine games. Meanwhile, Orlando needed a 3-pointer from Jalen Suggs with 4.1 seconds left to upset the Bulls in Chicago. Paolo Banchero is still out injured and there has been little indication as to when his return would come, but as always keep an eye on the injury report as both teams are not resting. If Orlando wants to spoil the party, they need to bottle this Indiana offense, which ranks 11th in offensive efficiency with no garbage time (114.7) and kills teams from across the arc (37.9%) and in transition to fill. The Magic has kept their opponents at just 34.2% from beyond the arc this season, but their transition defense has been among the worst in the league at 1.24 points per game. The Pacers’ own defense also underperformed, allowing 113.0 points per 100 possessions, but the Magic have been very fickle in that regard without Banchero. Indiana’s valuation is at a market high right now, but there are other teams I’d rather play them with than Orlando.
Minnesota Timberwolves at *Philadelphia 76ers (PK, 222.5)
It’s the second leg of a back-to-back for Philadelphia, meaning Joel Embiid has a chance – after dropping 32 points, 11 rebounds and 8 assists in a win over Milwaukee – to take the off night tonight. That current Timberwolves tally of -3.5 would suggest Embiid won’t play, but even if he does, the 76ers are undermanned. Tyrese Maxey is undergoing an MRI to see the extent of the foot injury he sustained yesterday and James Harden is still out. If Embiid is also done, it would make sense to have a number like this for Minnesota. The Timberwolves could start to settle down with this new group. They’ve only won their last two games and put them aside, but the team put up two of their best offensive performances of the season and Anthony Edwards, who suffered most on this new offense, is coming off a season-high 35 point performance. They should have enough to field an understaffed 76ers team tonight.
*Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers (-4, 223)
My theory that the Utah Jazz are a terrible defensive team seems to have some weight, but if they shoot 51.6% from the arc they can pull past a defensive performance where they conceded 1,291 points per possession like they did last night have done against Phoenix. After that poor performance, the Jazz now sits 24th in defensive efficiency outside of trash time, and that’s probably why we saw that overall increase to 227.5 consensus. One has to wonder what this offensive can do if they don’t take a break and head to Portland after that shooting performance last night, especially against a team that can bounce back with them like the Trail Blazers. The betting market has some faith in Utah as that number has dropped to 3.5 consensus. I would say that now is the time to play against the Jazz, but it may have to be a better opponent.
San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers (-8, 224.5)
Los Angeles are in the healthiest they’ve been in this game with San Antonio, and while their offense needs to find a rhythm, their defense continues to make an elite effort. The Clippers are second in defensive efficiency with no garbage time (107.3), and they rank in the top five of the two opposing points added per 100 possessions from Transition Offense (+1.8) and Half-Courage Defense (91.8). It seems this clash with Spurs would be one in which the Clippers can choke an opponent who has slipped to 25th place on offense (110.0). When those two met in San Antonio, the Clippers closed at -3.5 and picked up a win. Today that number was set at a consensus of -9 and the total has dropped to 221 at most stores. San Antonio covered four of five before their loss to Sacramento on Thursday, but this looks like a poor matchup for them tonight.